FY 2024 Global Multi Asset Performance
My 1st year part-time investing, and my Global Multi-Asset strategy returned 9.31% IRR. Just shy of the Hedge Fund Global Macro average (aurum.com) at 9.42% and beating JPM's Global Macro Fund C at 8.85%. Cashflows/Dashboard for my strategy are here: https://robinspinks.pythonanywhere.com/
Asset allocation favoured Long US large/small cap + the Tech thematic: forward PE’s kept meeting/beating expectation. Japan/Canada equities also rallied. Gutted I wasn’t able to find a good Indian/Nifty entry – but hopeful for one soon. Gold was the real star MVP for 2024, outperforming US Tech over several periods late last year.
Luckily, I was able to exit my mid corp Germany/UK positions at the right time - with no losses. Sadly, I haven’t had the heart to sell my ailing French CAC 40 position at a loss yet – definitely a lesson on anchoring bias. My Gov bond positions are being hammered by the current inflation story – but these have been completely offset thanks to Gold and USD strengthening. My FX ETF trade: long Yen short USD, was a huge lesson to not use these sorts of ETFs for FX exposure and to instead invest in the currency you want to be long in, because the FX ETF has no yield attached - but an investment does.
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I like to look at macro/political dynamics, e.g. the sensibility of the core inflation path vs forward rates, I listen/listen/listen to PMs - ultimately they “are” the market. I look at risk/return asymmetry. I look at Thematics and Narratives – because the world runs on what people “think” is the truth. For equity indices I look at PE ratio cycles. For credit risk bonds/ETFs, I look to be compen
It’s crazy to think US/UK rates are almost back at levels we saw a few years ago at the start of the inflationary crisis. This time it's due to the impact of Western Gov spending + Trump protectionism, but also diversification of Eastern Central Banks away from USD Treasuries and growing currency bilateralism/de-dollarisation. The US Treasury may essentially ‘need’ inflation to monetise and reduce
In the UK, steepening of the curve continues with 30 year rates at over 5.2%. German 10 year bunds currently at 2.5% - one wonders if the EU will eventually get itself together, re-read Draghi’s paper and start growing again? Also, wondering if it's time to dip into Chinese stocks yet or if the political/macro risks are too great. Crypto should probably get a seat at the table, even if the allocat